Analysis

Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski conceded defeat in Sunday’s presidential elections. The exit polls showed him trailing his main challenger, Andrzej Duda, who managed to win 53% of the votes. The result marks a significant blow to the ruling Civic Platform and its leader and Prime Minister, Ewa Kopacz. Ripple effects are expected to be felt in the more important parliamentary elections due later this year. In Poland the Head of State has limited powers in comparison to the Prime Minister but Andrzej Duda may well promote a more skeptical approach towards the European Union and lay the groundwork for a right-wing win in the upcoming parliamentary elections

Leaders of the European Union and six former Soviet republics (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) met in Riga for the first Eastern Partnership Summit since the Ukrainian crisis erupted. Unlike the Riga Summit of 2013, which triggered a series of events that eventually led to the downfall of Viktor Yanukovych and Russia’s annexation of Crimea, this year’s meeting had a less earth-shaking outcome. It ended in a joint declaration that lacks any firm commitments. Even where it was supposed to pack the most punches – its condemnation of Russian aggression in Ukraine – the language had to be watered down significantly

EU Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini visited the Middle East in the hope to revive peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority grounded to a halt more than a year ago. The two-day visit (20-21 May) to the region included meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and was aimed at ramping up the EU’s involvement in the Middle East peace process. It remains to be seen whether the EU will manage to fill the void left by the US as a peace broker. Deciding to use its full might in pushing for a feasible solution, including economic sanctions imposed on an unyielding Israel, seems a bridge too far

On Monday, 18 May, the EU Foreign and Defense Ministers agreed to establish a naval force, EUNAVFOR Med, to combat human smugglers operating off the coast of Libya. The force is part of the European Union’s response to the increasing number of irregular migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea in hope of finding a safe haven in one of the Union’s member states. It is expected to become operational next month and will be comprised of three stages, beginning with intelligence gathering, followed by “inspection and detection” and finally “neutralizing” traffickers’ facilities

In a statement posted on the EU’s External Action website late on Sunday, 17 May, Federica Mogherini, EU foreign policy chief, made it clear that the bloc stands firmly against the death penalty imposed on former Egyptian President Morsi and more than 100 of his supporters. In line with the EU’s policy on the death penalty, the standard response to all court rulings that deliver such a punishment says that it is cruel, inhumane and fails to act as a deterrent. On Saturday, 16 May, a court in Cairo ruled against the ex-president, sentencing him to death for his escape from prison in 2011, while being detained during protests that toppled his predecessor, Hosni Mubarak

On Wednesday, 13 May, the European Commission unveiled its highly anticipated plan to deal with the increasing number of migrants trying to reach the European shores. The long-awaited European Agenda on Migration made waves in the media with its system of immigration quotas and proposal for military action in the Mediterranean. The “immediate action” called for by the Commission establishes a set of measures to deter and dismantle traffickers’ networks, while also distributing the burden of resettling asylum seekers amongst EU member states. More details will continue to be presented on the various proposals, while the package will be discussed by the EU leaders at the upcoming European Council meeting in June

Andrzej Duda pulled off a surprising upset over the incumbent Bronislaw Komorowski in the first round of the Polish presidential elections. According to the Polish Press Agency exit poll, the surge in support for the nationalist conservative candidate puts him in the lead with 34.8% of the vote. President Komorowski has been relegated to an unexpected second place after receiving only 32.2% of the total ballots cast. The two will meet again in the 24 May runoff since neither candidate managed to secure more than 50% of the vote. The results are all the more remarkable as opinion polls gave Mr. Komorowski a comfortable win over his contender

The Conservatives’ sweep to victory in the 7 May general election means that a triumphant David Cameron will be back at 10 Downing Street without much hassle and without relying on a coalition partner to form the next government. The Tories’ 331 seats give him an outright majority, the first of its kind in over two decades. The Labour Party suffered a humiliating defeat and the Liberal Democrats were crushed beyond anybody’s expectation. In response to such a dismal outcome both Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg stepped down as party leaders, followed by Nigel Farage of the UK Independence Party, another underperformer in this year’s general elections

On Monday, 4 May, the Italian Parliament voted on legislation aimed at reforming the country’s electoral system. The overhaul, proposed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, seeks to put an end to a fragmented political scene that has ushered in four different governments since the beginning of this decade. A jubilant ruling coalition welcomed the Parliament’s approval of the bill by a vote of 334 to 61. Soon after the secret ballot came to a close and the votes were counted, an enraptured Renzi tweeted: “Commitment kept, promise fulfilled.” “Mission accomplished”, stated Reform Minister Elena Boschi

The European Commission has upped its growth forecasts for the Eurozone and the entire EU after noting the positive effects of the European Central Bank (ECB) debt purchase programme; cheaper oil prices, and the depreciation of the euro. However, this economic improvement will not be uniform across all the member states. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 19 euro members will be up this year by 1.5%, two tenths higher than estimated in February by the EU executive. For the 28 countries in the European Union, the Commission also revised forecasts upwards by one decimal point to 1.8%

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