Andrzej Duda pulled off a surprising upset over the incumbent Bronislaw Komorowski in the first round of the Polish presidential election. According to the Polish Press Agency exit poll, the surge in support for the nationalist conservative candidate puts him in the lead with 34.8% of the vote. President Komorowski has been relegated to an unexpected second place after receiving only 32.2% of the total ballots cast. The two will meet again in the 24 May runoff since neither candidate managed to secure more than 50% of the vote.
The results are all the more remarkable as opinion polls gave Mr. Komorowski a comfortable lead over his contender. Some even suggested that electoral support for the incumbent president was as high as two-thirds of voters. Not many expected a runoff election, and even fewer predicted a win for Mr. Duda of the Law and Justice Party.
Also finishing well above what the political forecasts had predicted is the independent Pawel Kukiz, a former rock singer with no prior political experience. He ran on an anti-establishment agenda, critical of the government and promising a new way of doing politics. Exit polls placed him in a commendable third place finish with 20.3% of the vote and in a position to act as the kingmaker for the second round; his endorsement could very well make the difference for Duda and Komorowksi between winning or losing on 24 May. Kukiz said, minutes after polls closed, that he is reluctant to back any of the two front-runners, at the same time vowing never to help “strengthen the omnipotence of the Civic Platform.” The statement spells bad news for Mr. Komorowski and his Civic Platform Party as they grapple with poor results and discontented voters.
Many regard the 10 May vote as a dress rehearsal for the parliamentary elections to be held later this year. If Mr. Komorowski loses the presidency, the ruling Civic Platform Party could also be headed for disaster. Not only has the party enjoyed the backing of President Komorowski, but it also relies on a stable parliamentary majority which will be jeopardized if voter disenchantment spills over to the October elections.
Civic Platform, which saw its former leader Donald Tusk assume the presidency of the European Council, might be the next victim of the move towards the populist right by European voters. Given Poland’s stellar track record as the only EU country unscathed by the financial crisis, a possible shift to the nationalist right is not so much an economic response as it is a reaction to misgivings over the country’s foreign policy. It might be even safe to assume that what set Andrzej Duda a cut above the rest was his focus on national security, with many voters fearing that, after Ukraine, their country could become Russia’s next target.
