Analysis

Stable energy prices and a smooth supply of gas are a priority for Europeans, according to a special EU opinion poll on climate change held last year. The European Commission under its current president, Jean-Claude Juncker, seems to have heeded the concerns of Europeans and crafted a grand plan to form an energy union that would reduce dependency on Russian gas while fighting climate change. The energy union focuses on five different areas, also called dimensions, but the first one, security of supply, is by far the one that weighs more heavily in terms of EU’s foreign policy. It basically aims at reducing the dependence on imports.

After a week of non-stop meetings by the Greek Prime Minister and his Finance Minister, Messrs Tsipras and Varoufakis, an apparent rift exists between Greece and Germany. With the ECB’s action to cut off the Greek banks from the ESM and instead use the ELA mechanism for liquidity, and Jeroen Dijselbloem’s outright rejection of a ‘bridge loan’, the situation is now at a standstill. While Greece sees the first demonstrations in support of its government, the current bailout programme ends on 28 February and Grexit re-enters the public discourse.

The streets of Budapest on Sunday, 1 February, were full of people demonstrating against their government. The policies of Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, are widely seen as pro-Russian. The timing of the demonstration was also chosen to maximize the reach of their message, as Angela Merkel was expected in Hungary in order to address the government’s commitment to EU sanctions against Russia. Angela Merkel did arrive in Budapest on Monday, 2 February, and held a joint press conference after her talks with Orban. It did not look that their meeting had gone well.

The press conference that followed the meeting of Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis and the head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Dijsselbloem captured the attention of the European public. It was a media performance on both sides. Varoufakis drew his government’s hard lines and stated that they would no longer negotiate with the troika. Instead he put forward the demand for a conference to discuss debt relief. Deiselbloem’s performance of the infuriated eurocrat was out of protocol and has been largely understood as colonial by the Greek public. In a later communication with the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, Dijsselbloem referred to the episode as a misunderstanding.

The recent escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine challenges once again Europe’s position. The differences in opinion among EU members regarding the severity of the sanctions against Russia reflect the varied historical trajectories of the European countries. Traditionally, Italy finds itself on the moderate side on matters regarding Russia, while Poland squarely in the hawkish camp. The recent events and Polish reactions regarding the possible visit to Auschwitz by Mr Putin are indicative of these tensions.

Syriza and the Independent Greeks will jointly have 166 MPs, but Mr Tsipras is looking to secure a wider support in order to start the promised renegotiations with Greece’s creditors.

With all the votes counted, Syriza won the Greek elections with a 36.34% of the electorate, against a 27.81% of its rival Nea Dimokratia. The noe-fascist party Golden Dawn came third with 6.28%, followed by the centrist The River with 6.05%, the Communist Party at 5.47%, the Independent Greeks at 4.75% and Pasok at 4.68%. George Papandreou, the former Prime Minister, failed to re-elect into Parliament with his new party.

According to the exit polls that were conducted on behalf of the Greek tv networks Syriza is the winner of the Greek elections. This is the exit poll for Mega Channel that has Syriza in the lead with a comfortable margin. According to the statistical scenarios Syriza would need to gather 36.5% in order to get the majority in the Parliament. At the moment this seems a very likely development.

Syriza 35,5 – 39,5%

Nea Dimokratia 23 – 27%

Golden Dawn 6,4 – 8% The River 6,4 – 8%

Pasok 4,2 – 5,2%

The EU’s foreign policy regarding Russia was at the table at the recent meeting of European foreign affairs ministers. Federica Mogherini had circulated a paper among the group exploring the mood for a potential softening of the sanctions against Russia. Ms Mogherini suggested the EU might seek to improve relations with Russia by opening dialogue on a range of topics such as visas and energy policy. However, representatives of the UK, Poland and the Baltic states, traditionally cautious of Russia, considered it as an error in EU strategy.

Biotechnology is the subject of heated debates worldwide. This is mainly why it took the EU so long to adopt a Directive that gives national governments the responsibility to decide whether to prohibit the cultivation of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) on their territory. In response to a request by 13 member states, the European Commission drafted the Directive in 2011. Back then, it faced stark opposition by France, Luxembourg, Austria and Poland, and it was only in 2014 that a political agreement allowed for its adoption in January 2015.

The European Commission published a report on employment and social developments in Europe, on 15 January, where it is noted that more than nine million more are unemployed compared with 2008. The unemployment rate in the 28 EU member states reached 10.0% in November 2014, down from 10.7% in November 2013. Youth unemployment reached 21.9% in the EU and 23.7% in the euro area, compared with 23.2% and 23.9% respectively in November 2013. Unemployed young people under 25 are now 5.1 million in the EU, compared with 3.4 million in the Eurozone.

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