The leaders of Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia have forged out an agreement for a ceasefire that will end weeks of intense fighting in eastern Ukraine. Following their all-night talks on Wednesday, 11 February in Minsk, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President informed the press that the representatives of Ukraine and separatist rebels had signed a package of measures to implement the failed ceasefire agreement reached last September.
The leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine agreed on Sunday, 8 February, to press ahead with the diplomatic initiative by Ms Merkel to ease the tension in Eastern Ukraine. Germany is convinced that even discussions of supplying weapons could escalate the fighting and encourage Ukraine in a war it could never win against a much stronger Russia. The German Chancellor defended her decision to maintain economic sanctions and avoid the use of force by referring to her own experience of waiting patiently for the Cold War to end. “I am surprised at how faint-hearted we are, and how quickly we lose courage,” she remarked.
Relations between the EU and Russia are at a particularly low point over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Since the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union this must be the time of highest tension between the major powers on the European continent. Talk of new sanctions on Russia and of providing military assistance to Ukraine by the West may exacerbate the situation without actually resolving it. A further cornered Russia may well become more authoritarian internally and aggressive externally. The EU would be wise to avoid that and find more constructive ways of engaging with its big eastern neighbor…
Stable energy prices and a smooth supply of gas are a priority for Europeans, according to a special EU opinion poll on climate change held last year. The European Commission under its current president, Jean-Claude Juncker, seems to have heeded the concerns of Europeans and crafted a grand plan to form an energy union that would reduce dependency on Russian gas while fighting climate change. The energy union focuses on five different areas, also called dimensions, but the first one, security of supply, is by far the one that weighs more heavily in terms of EU’s foreign policy. It basically aims at reducing the dependence on imports.
The EU central institutions seem to be stuck to what 19th Century Europe identified as “mission civilisatrice”, fuelled by an underlying sense of self-righteousness and superiority vis-à-vis others, while individual member states continue to pursue their narrow but concrete geopolitical and economic interests, which go in different directions. It should come as no surprise that EU members are steadily losing ground on the charts of state power and influence in the world, overtaken by more dynamic, emerging powers. Of course, with its ambition, innovation and flexibility the US remains steadily at the top, as would the EU as a whole, should it become really united.
The recent escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine challenges once again Europe’s position. The differences in opinion among EU members regarding the severity of the sanctions against Russia reflect the varied historical trajectories of the European countries. Traditionally, Italy finds itself on the moderate side on matters regarding Russia, while Poland squarely in the hawkish camp. The recent events and Polish reactions regarding the possible visit to Auschwitz by Mr Putin are indicative of these tensions.
Nearly half a million Ukrainians have fled the country since April. More than 387,000 went to Russia, and among them most were Russian speakers from the east. The official count by the UN is 4707 dead since the Ukrainian revolution turned violent at the end of February 2014.
The Ukrainian parliamentary elections on 26 October confirmed the country’s pro-European orientation by choosing representatives from the social forces that were
Ukraine, Russia and the European Union have agreed on a deal that would secure the resumption of Russian natural gas flowing to Ukraine in time for winter.
