With 99% of the Turkish election results in, it is clear that President Erdoğan’s AKP party has failed to secure the necessary parliamentary seats to singlehandedly change the constitution, initiate a referendum, or even form the next government. With a bit over 40% of the vote and some 254 seats in the 550-seat Grand National Assembly, AKP has scored its worst result in recent years.
Mr. Erdoğan’s plans for amending the constitution and turning Turkey into a presidential republic with him at the helm seem to have suffered a fatal blow. There can be a coalition to create a new government, possibly between AKP and the far-right nationalist MHP with its 16.5% of the vote and some 82 seats, but that is a different matter. All opposition parties, including MHP, have clearly stated before the election that they would not cooperate with changing the constitution in the direction that Mr. Erdoğan has wanted.
More than a defeat for Mr. Erdoğan, though, this is a victory for democracy in Turkey. The country may after all be fulfilling its earlier promise of becoming a democratic model to be emulated by Muslim-majority countries. AKP’s first victory in the early 2000s had given rise to such hopes, with the traditionalist Muslim majority of Turkey asserting their authority and their vision for the country. While this led to a broadly welcomed imposition of checks on the secular, pro-Western, but often repressive, previous regime under the patronage of the Turkish armed forces, it gradually degenerated into a heavy-handed one-man show through the increasing predominance of Mr. Erdoğan. His authoritarian streak, combined with his low tolerance of dissent and unconstitutional meddling apparently has not gone down well with Turkish voters, including some of Mr. Erdoğan’s former supporters.
The intricacies of the 7 June Turkish election and the consequences expected of such a result have been previously analysed by Katoikos in depth. However, let us briefly say here the fact that the centre-left HDP, built on the basis of a pre-existing Kurdish bloc but also bringing together women, the LGBT community and green groups, easily surpassed the very high election threshold of 10% and enters parliament with about 13% of the vote and some 82 seats is a major democratic feat by itself. Together with the traditional social-democratic CHP party, which came second to AKP with just over 25% and some 132 seats, they will hopefully mount a credible opposition and will maintain pressure on Mr. Erdoğan and his allies to respect the Turkish constitution and the secular character of the state, while recognising the interests and sensitivities of the various groups that constitute today’s increasingly diverse Turkey.
In the event of a smooth transition to this pluralistic, post-AKP-predominance Turkey that the 7 June election signaled, the Turkish example may well serve as a model for Egypt and other Muslim countries, and may well deserve a closer engagement with the EU in a more relaxed and mutually respectful partnership. Congratulations to the Turkish people as the country enters this new, more mature phase in its democracy.
The editorial team of Katoikos
