The news just broke today, 28 September 2024, that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had been killed in a massive Israeli strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut the previous evening. Apparently, the strike took place at about the same time as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was addressing the UN General Assembly in New York insisting on achieving peace by eliminating Israel’s enemies, in defiance of calls for a ceasefire by the world body and Israel’s closest ally, the USA.
This is the latest escalation in the Middle East war that started with the 7 October 2023 horrific attack of Hamas and other militant factions in southern Israel that resulted in the death of more than 1100 people and the abduction of some 250 others. The hell that broke loose since then has left Gaza in ruins, with more than 40,000 Palestinians dead and the remaining Gaza population of more than two million largely homeless and on the brink of famine, plus hundreds of West Bank Palestinians dead, now hundreds of Lebanese also dead, and hundreds of Israelis killed too. The danger of a broader escalation has been there from the start of this confrontation but is now looming larger than ever, in view of the escalation on the Lebanon front and the rumoured ground assault that Israel is about to launch.
Israel, at least its current ultra-nationalist government, seems determined to achieve final victory on all of its enemies at this historical juncture, despite mounting concerns even by its closest ally. The moral justification that Israel offers is that it is acting in self-defence following the Hamas attack and subsequent shelling by Hezbollah from Lebanon, in support of Hamas. When does self-defence become disproportionate and turns into offence? Proportionality is difficult to be established when the rage of revenge prevails, especially among those who suffered the initial loss. One would expect a sense of proportionality, though, to eventually prevail in the decision-making of a democratic and law-abiding state like Israel claims to be.
A clear-minded reading of history would help put things into perspective. A major factor underlying the frequent outbreaks of violence between Israelis and the Palestinians is the occupation of the Palestinian lands – the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem – by Israel. The tight control that Israel exerts on the Palestinians’ lives and economy on a daily basis, the continuing expropriation of Palestinian land for Israeli settlements, the indefinite administrative detention and the extrajudicial killing of Palestinians, the daily intimidation and humiliation of individuals and of the whole Palestinian people, seem to have no end. There is no transition plan to a post-occupation state, where the Palestinians will be free citizens, masters of their own land and their own affairs. In its 19 July 2024 Advisory Opinion, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) concluded that “Israel’s continued presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory is unlawful and that it is under an obligation to bring to an end its unlawful presence ‘as rapidly as possible’”.
The US and the European Union were quick in supporting Israel after the unprecedented Hamas attack of 7 October 2023. The subsequent relentless bombardment of Gaza, and now Lebanon, the undermining of efforts at a permanent ceasefire and the “elimination” of the Hamas leaders who could negotiate such a ceasefire, and now the Hezbollah leader, have significantly eroded Israel’s moral suasion and constitute a mounting embarrassment for its allies. Claims of supporting a “rules based order” ring hollow; if international law must be upheld by Russia, as the West vehemently insists, so too that should be the case for Israel. And indeed that should be the case for all international actors.
The shortsightedness and lack of historical perspective by all of the above is striking. The “total victory” of the Allied Powers in World War I, with the imposition of draconian measures on the defeated, made World War II inevitable. On the contrary, the assistance provided to and integration of the defeated of World War II has allowed for a major European integration / peace project and eight decades without a world war, something that will hopefully continue. Does one have to remind the protagonists of the current war that the “eliminated” become heroes and martyrs for their people, and inspire others who rise to take their place? Technological superiority, such as precision bombs and exploding communication devices, cannot deter / bully entire communities with a deep sense of injustice done upon them. Israelis, of all people, should know this well from their own defiant history, their immense sufferings and their revivals that followed against all odds.
Focusing criticism on Israel may seem unfair, because there is a lot that is to be criticized in the course of action pursued by Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Among all of them, though, Israel is the democratic state proclaiming superior levels of decency and compliance with moral standards and international law. In this light, the pursuit by Israel and its Prime Minister of total victory in the conflicts with the Palestinian people that they occupy and with Israel’s pro-Palestinian neighbours can only be seen as a major contradiction with Israel’s own lofty rule-of-law pronouncements; and ultimately against its own interests, if it wants at some point to be accepted and to exist in sustainable peace with its neighbours in the region.
Success in the current Israeli government’s mindset would mean a state of near-extermination of the enemy, hence the 24 May 2024 Order by the ICJ, which included the following paragraph:
- The Court considers that, in conformity with its obligations under the Genocide Convention, Israel must immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in the Rafah Governorate, which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.
On similar grounds, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court requested on 20 May 2024 the issuance of arrest warrants against Mr. Netanyahu and his Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, because the Prosecutor had “reasonable grounds to believe” that the two of them:
“…bear criminal responsibility for the following war crimes and crimes against humanity committed on the territory of the State of Palestine (in the Gaza strip) from at least 8 October 2023:
- Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(b)(xxv) of the Statute;
- Wilfully causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or health contrary to article 8(2)(a)(iii), or cruel treatment as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
- Wilful killing contrary to article 8(2)(a)(i), or Murder as a war crime contrary to article 8(2)(c)(i);
- Intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population as a war crime contrary to articles 8(2)(b)(i), or 8(2)(e)(i);
- Extermination and/or murder contrary to articles 7(1)(b) and 7(1)(a), including in the context of deaths caused by starvation, as a crime against humanity;
- Persecution as a crime against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(h);
- Other inhumane acts as crimes against humanity contrary to article 7(1)(k).”
(For the record, the Prosecutor also asked for arrest warrants to be issued for three Hamas leaders, some if not all of whom have in the meantime been killed by Israel.)
It is difficult to see how things can get better at the moment. The question is rather how worse they can become without blowing up the region and the whole world. It does not hurt to call once again on the adversaries to pull back from the brink. The more blood gets spilt the more the calls for revenge from all sides increase and reverberate over time. At least outsiders should maintain their composure and act with the bigger picture in mind, even if this would mean being tough on adversaries and friends alike. Israel, in particular, should be made to understand beyond doubt that it will be treated as an international pariah if it invades Lebanon and continues the extrajudicial killings of enemy leaders and bystanders. The treatment of Apartheid South Africa comes to mind, which included an arms embargo, disinvestment and a suspension of the government’s recognition by the UN, till the Apartheid policies were reversed. The Arab and Muslim countries, from their side, should prevail on the Palestinian factions, Hezbollah and Iran to refrain from any further attacks on Israel, with an arms embargo imposed on all of them too.
A peace-making package could include Arab and Muslim troops and/or monitoring groups deployed to ensure compliance with an eventual ceasefire by the Palestinian factions and Hezbollah, with Iran also in some way committing to this arrangement. Americans and Europeans could correspondingly deploy on the Israeli side to keep Israel accountable. Existing UN peacekeeping and observer missions, in Lebanon, Israel, Palestine and Syria, would continue to move across dividing lines and help with communications and problem solving. An overall agreement should be reached under the auspices of the UN, with temporary UN Administration of Gaza and a clearly defined and fully funded plan for Gaza’s reconstruction, together with a very specific timeline of no more than three years, with specific milestones leading to Palestinian statehood. The state of Palestine should maintain police forces but no army and should benefit from international guarantees against any Israeli attacks, in the event that Israel would not follow in also maintaining only police forces, as ideally it would. Maybe some other plan would have a better chance of success. Time is of the essence. Just standing by and doing nothing is not an option, unless one wants to play Nero while the Middle East is burning and potentially acting as a fuse for the entire world.
Dr Georgios Kostakosis Executive Director of the Brussels-based Foundation for Global Governance and Sustainability (FOGGS). He has been extensively involved in global governance, sustainability and climate-related activities with the United Nations and beyond. The starting point for the work of FOGGS is the need for a new Grand Narrative for a fair, human-centred and inclusive globalization. One of its projects is the UN2100 Initiativefor UN reform, which includes the proposal to establish a Global Resilience Council to effectively address non-military threats to human security like climate change and pandemics.
