Symbolic as the upcoming change of calendar year may be, as a human construct, it does encourage a fresh look at past events and the making of resolutions, or at least wishes, for the new year ahead. 2025 has been packed with turbulence, thanks to the new/old US President’s “transactional politics” at home and abroad but also events unfolding under the agency of other actors. In this article we refer to events in the year that is ending, while exploring potentially more positive ways forward in 2026.
Peace and security
President Trump has been boasting of solving some eight conflicts in the first year of his new Presidency. To what extent those conflicts have actually ended remains an open question. Judging, though, by the recurring clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, or within the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the Trump magic seems to have limited duration. In any case, the list of ongoing armed or temporarily paused conflicts is quite long. Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, other Middle East fronts notably Israel vs. Lebanon/Hezbollah and Iran, the civil wars in Sudan and Burma, are prominent among the many open wounds on the body of humanity. Tens of millions of people are directly or indirectly affected in each of these conflicts, death and destruction abound, while survivors often have to deal with the most adverse conditions.
Time for the regular and/or irregular troops – as the case may be in each conflict – to put their weapons down, end hostilities, and make room for peaceful ways out. In all armed conflicts, an initial ceasefire is a sine-qua-non for the transition from confrontation to collective problem-solving. A ceasefire, however, is not enough if the underlying causes of a conflict are not addressed in a framework of just peace, atonement for past aggression and/or other mistakes is not sought in earnest, and mutual acceptance does not take hold on all sides.
Reconciliation is the desirable end of each and all conflicts, and should include solid commitments to mutual respect, the payment of adequate reparations for damage caused, and bringing those credibly accused of war crimes or crimes against humanity before the competent national or international courts for judgement. Moreover, peace agreements should be anchored in broader political settlements, like the two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. They should also be part of region-wide shared security and prosperity arrangements, covering the whole of the Middle East in the case of the Arab-Israeli and Israeli-Iranian conflict, or Europe / Eurasia for the Russia-Ukraine and Russia-West conflict. Disarmament or arms reduction treaties, demilitarized zones, free trade areas and cultural exchange schemes should be part and parcel of such broader settlements.
Sustainable Development
The large-scale channeling of resources to armaments, because of the ongoing wars and the sharp increase in military spending, does not augur well for the worldwide achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, as foreseen. For the countries directly affected, the ongoing conflicts not only stall but reverse progress made in terms of the SDGs across the board, including in society and the economy (health and nutritional hazards; economic activity disruption; energy, water and other infrastructure destruction; broader well-being sharp reduction), as well as vis-à-vis the natural environment (massive release of air, water and land pollutants).
While the worsening impacts of climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss are there for all to see, green policies are currently undermined or abandoned, in view of pressing questions of peace and war that demand urgent attention, immediate concerns of job precarity, the impact of AI and other rapidly evolving technologies, cost of living increases, financial fluctuations, and regressive ideologies that capitalize on fear generated by all of the above. We urgently need a rethinking of priorities and the reallocation of resources for SDG implementation, including climate action, equitable development and human resilience. This eventually requires the rethinking of how and for whom the economy works, the role of trade and finance, taxation within and across borders, the status of the super-rich, and a rebalancing of the roles of the public and the private sector.
Leadership
A lot of the negative things happening nowadays can be directly or indirectly attributed to a shortage of positive and competent leadership. Authoritarian personalities are increasingly controlling the highest political echelons of even mature, long-standing democracies in the US and Europe. Populism reigns supreme, offering raw flesh to the crowds for the satisfaction of primeval instincts, while encouraging the spreading of extreme views, conspiracy theories and other untruths, till any sense of sane judgement or individual agency has been lost.
Beyond the national level, regional and global organizations seem to be suffering from bad leadership too. Consider, for example, the big words but no action emanating from the top floor of the UN Secretariat, or the influence apparently exerted on the European Commission’s leadership by interests connected to the automotive, fossil fuel, agrochemicals, and arms industries. A real change in leadership style and content is needed. Hopefully that will happen organically soon, through elections and other transparent and legitimate processes. In the case of the UN, for example, a new Secretary-General is due to be selected in 2026 and take over on 1 January 2027. An inspired and inspiring public servant of humanity’s shared interests and competent administrator, preferably a woman for the first time, will hopefully emerge as the successful candidate.
At the same time, the military-industrial-technological-financial superpowers, which at this point include the US and China, with Russia in-between, should not be allowed a free hand in running the world through their eclectic mix of competition and collaboration that shuts out all others. A group of medium powers from the Global South and the Global North need to take on, collectively, a multilateral leadership role, speaking legitimately for and with the moral authority of “the international community”.
2026 can be the year that confirms humanity’s accelerating drift towards greater conflict, inequality, misery and potential disaster, or can mark the reversal of the downward spiral with decisive steps in the direction of a more peaceful, just and sustainably prosperous world. For the latter to happen, well-meaning governments, individuals and groups of all sorts around the world need to act in unison and demand that the provisions of the United Nations Charter, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, other instruments of international law and the values of our common humanity guide all decisions and actions, within and between countries and regions.
Dr Georgios Kostakos is Co-founder and Executive Director of the Brussels-based Foundation for Global Governance and Sustainability (FOGGS). He has been a UN staff member, including with the Executive Office of the UN Secretary-General, the High-level Panel on Global Sustainability, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and field missions for political affairs and human rights. He has also worked with think tanks, academic institutions and as a consultant on global governance and sustainability, peace and resilience.
