“A week is a long time in politics,” as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously remarked. The first two weeks of March 2025 have felt endless, marked by political shifts, surprises, and moments that could shape the future for decades to come.
The U.S. initially paused military aid to Ukraine, raising concerns over the latter’s defence against Russia, yet as of March 11, 2025, a 30-day interim ceasefire was agreed upon by the Ukrainian side at least, while new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and the EU escalated trade tensions. Meanwhile, European leaders have been exploring options of continued support for Kyiv. All this has been unfolding as the U.S. and Russia engage in diplomatic talks to restore embassy operations and explore conflict resolution options. A question that comes to mind is: why isn’t Europe engaging directly with Russia in these discussions?
Despite President Trump’s claim during his meeting with President Macron on February 24 that the U.S. is bearing a greater financial burden, Europe has actually taken a significantly larger economic hit in supporting Ukraine. Following Russia’s February 2022 invasion, European Union countries imposed a slew of energy, financial, trade, and transport sanctions. This set off a chain reaction that triggered an energy crisis in the EU, soaring inflation, industrial disruptions, and agricultural setbacks—crippling their economies for the past two years. Having so much at stake, I genuinely can’t comprehend how we ended up on the sidelines of the negotiating table.
However, after considering the facts, things begin to fall into place. Europe has aligned itself with NATO (essentially the U.S.) for so long that it has neglected to advance or even formulate its own agenda for a truly independent foreign policy. Meanwhile, the United States under the Biden Administration has made a highly strategic investment in the Russia-Ukraine war, supplying Ukraine with money and weapons in a way that serves two key objectives. First, it weakens a major global rival without direct military engagement, using Ukraine as a proxy. Second, it fuels a booming arms industry at home, strengthening the U.S. defence sector while others bear most of the economic burden of the conflict.
Europe — defined here as the collective of EU member states, the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey — boasts a combined GDP of approximately $23 trillion, making it the world’s largest economic bloc. It is home to around 740 million people, placing it third globally by population, and spans a landmass of roughly 5.8 million square kilometers. This definition excludes Russia and its European territory, while including Turkey’s European portion for geographic consistency. The economic data primarily reflects the European Union, based on recent figures from Eurostat and the IMF. It is important to note that the concept of ‘Europe’ here is not a legally or institutionally unified entity. Clarifying this scope is crucial, as Europe is not a single geopolitical entity but rather a constellation of states with overlapping memberships and diverging strategic priorities. With a rich history of scientific breakthroughs, military capacity, cultural influence, and diplomatic leadership that stretches across centuries and continents, another question comes to mind. Why is Europe diminishing itself to a spectator, when it should be shaping the global agenda?
Lack of leadership. Military dependence. Internal divisions.
As Washington gears up for a new economic confrontation with the world while also moving to settle the Russia-Ukraine war on its own terms, Europe is left with two choices: will it continue to follow, or will it finally push back and take charge of its own affairs? But can a fractured Europe, lacking military self-sufficiency and increasingly at odds with its transatlantic ally, rise to the challenge?
In order for Europe to “stand on business”, three fundamental pillars must be established: First, is a strong leader who will be able to unite governments around a common vision. A Churchillian figure — someone who can rise above national interests, unify individual country leaders, and drive the continent toward strategic independence. What Europe needs now is not just another bureaucrat, but a statesman or a stateswoman with vision and the ability to unite a divided Europe under a shared purpose. The question is: who will step up? Second is an independent foreign policy built on self-reliance. Europe’s diplomacy cannot remain an extension of Washington’s agenda. This means diversifying energy supply, expanding defence production, and leveraging European economic clout to negotiate on one’s own terms. A truly sovereign Europe does not beg for security guarantees — it builds them. Third, resolving internal divisions to function as a unified bloc. Fragmentation is Europe’s greatest weakness. National interests often overshadow the collective interest, making targeted policies and decisive action nearly impossible. Europe must learn to speak with one voice – or risk remaining a collection of competing interests rather than a global force.
The proposed Readiness 2030 initiative aims to boost European defence investment, with discussions suggesting figures as high as €800 billion over time. It presents a chance for European unity and independence — if done right. But major challenges must be tackled early. Unlike the U.S., with its single defence system, Europe remains divided, with nations often competing rather than coordinating. Meanwhile, arms production lags, as years of underfunding left manufacturers unprepared to scale up. Defence spending is also uneven. Poland and the Baltics spend 3-4% of GDP, while Germany and Spain face political pushback in their efforts to reach and go above 2%. This gap threatens long-term security.
All these challenges, if not addressed from the outset, could prevent the plan from realizing its full potential. Failing to act decisively now would not only leave Europe vulnerable but also reinforce its dependence on external powers. If tackled head-on, the Readiness 2030 initiative could lay the foundation for a stronger, more self-reliant continent, one that no longer relies on others to dictate its security and future. The opportunity is here, but opportunities do not last forever. The choice is clear: will Europe seize this moment to reclaim its global standing, or continue to watch from the sidelines as others shape the world?
