One of Europe’s worse nightmares became a reality after last Thursday’s British EU referendum result. But could Brexit also be a blessing in disguise for Europe?
With 51.9% of the vote, the United Kingdom, one of the block’s oldest members, will be leaving the EU by 2019. Many EU officials and politicians have called for a quick “divorce,” to avoid damaging in the long-term Europe’s economy by dragging the negotiations for too long.
The outcome was expected. For many years, not just Britain but all of the continent’s governments have been allowing populism to thrive. They failed to deal with the economic crises quickly enough and, in addition, they made serious mistakes when responding to the Syrian refugee crisis.
National governments have purposely avoided explaining to their citizens how the block works and what benefits it offers.
They forgot that populism always wins. It is easier for people to understand an argument about issues that affect them directly, in the plain language that demagogue Far Right or Far Left politicians were using.
Instead of this, national governments were continuously scapegoating the EU for all that was wrong in their economies. They have purposely avoided explaining to their citizens how the block works and what benefits it offers.
They have simply engaged in political games, with aim to gain an upper hand in their country’s internal politics, while perpetuating their rule and power. They ignored the interests of the ordinary people and deliberately allowed them to be misinformed for years, to serve local elites.
They never wished for the EU and its institutions to replace them in the hearts and minds of the voters. Why would they, after all? They preferred citizens to trust them when it came to dealing with issues that were of concern and keep voting for them.
But it was not the EU that failed the citizens during the economic or the refugee crisis. Its institutions did not have much say on how each state would deal with the amount of people pouring in from the Middle East.
In each case, it was the national governments that decided which policy they would follow, opening the borders to refugees like Germany or Sweden did, or hermetically closing them like Slovakia and Hungary. It was our own rulers who were delaying the process and hindering a quicker response to the problem.
Where the EU is largely at fault, is that they remained too detached from the citizens for decades.
Additionally, it was not the EU that followed disastrous economic policies for decades, leading to the economic crisis which continues to affect millions of Europeans. Each national government has either decided alone or in agreement with its EU partners and the bloc’s institutions and laws, which they have accepted and voted for, on their financial policies.
Where the EU is largely at fault, is that they remained too detached from the citizens for decades. It mainly focused on the financial nature of the union, while it did little to remain relevant in the citizens’ every day expectations and problems.
In addition, it responded in a very technocratic- often arrogant- manner to the financial crisis, ignoring the warnings or voices of analysts with a different approach.
They acted with absolute disregard for the ordinary peoples’ needs while they were quick to appease European banks, thus proceeding with disastrous austerity policies, in the case of states like Greece.
As result, the EU became the poster-child of the euro-zone crisis even though it was not entirely its fault.
When it comes to Britain itself, its political leadership for decades allowed wealthy populist con men to brainwash and misinform people through media, misrepresenting the reality on the country’s EU membership.
On that, most recent British politicians are to be blamed, not just David Cameron. They allowed the bubblegum of “Britain is Great and we pay too much in Europe” to go on for years.
When it comes to Britain itself, its political leadership for decades allowed wealthy populist con men to brainwash and misinform people through media, misrepresenting the reality on the country’s EU membership.
Maintaining this arrogance and nationalism among the political elite and the people resulted in the populist politics blowing up in their faces in the recent referendum.
Subsequently, we are witnessing an extraordinary set of developments in the aftermath. David Cameron himself announced his resignation by October. The Labour Party is in turmoil facing a number of resignations, while Scotland and Northern Ireland expressed their intentions of looking into ways to leave the UK altogether.
The Scottish, in particular, who voted to stay in the EU, are making the most waves. The country’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, hinted at how undemocratic it would be for Scotland to be dragged out of the European Union, after having voted by 62% to remain.
Ms. Sturgeon appears to suggest that the Scottish Parliament could block Britain’s exit from the EU, or it could hold a second referendum to leave the centuries old union with the rest of the Kingdom. Could this be the end of Europe and Britain as we know it?
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, hinted at how undemocratic it would be for Scotland to be dragged out of the European Union, after having voted by 62% to remain.
In a worse case scenario, if the UK leaves the EU we could see the dissolution of Great Britain with Scotland and Northern Ireland rejoining the block in time. Yet Britain’s departure could cause negative side effects throughout the continent.
Most European Far Right leaders, like France’s Marine Le Pen and Holland’s Geert Wilders, have hailed the British referendum outcome, hinting that they will try to achieve the same for their own countries.
If they succeed, we will have the dissolution of the EU, a work in progress since WW2 and the most admirable European achievement of all time. The economic, social and political chaos that would follow should scare any reasonable person on this continent.
Additionally, we could see the return and rise of fascism, nationalism, xenophobia and extremism in Europe, in forms that we haven’t experienced since the end of the last big war.
On a more positive tone, it will never come to this. If Britain eventually leaves the union, it will most likely join EEA/EFTA, and little would change. But it would take a lot of negotiations and political skill on their part to convince the rest of Europe to accept them as a member of these blocs.
The remaining European powers will most definitely want to make an example of the UK and punish it, in order to forbid other Euro-skeptic nations attempting something similar.
The remaining European powers will most definitely want to make an example of the UK and punish it, in order to forbid other Euro-skeptic nations attempting something similar. Just as they humiliated Greece so that other member states could hasten reforms, Britain could pay a high price in order to punish all these states who also might want out.
Another positive outcome from this referendum could be that the rest of Europe may proceed with further integration now. Britain was always the most vocal member state advocating against such development and, since it is now on its way out, pro-European and federalist powers could finally achieve their goal.
If, that is, others don’t decide to leave. Britain has a lot of allies and close partners in the Union. Sweden, Denmark and Ireland all joined the bloc because Britain paved the way.
What will happen to Ireland when Britain leaves? While the Irish are pro-European and most likely to integrate themselves further in EU by joining the Schengen Agreement now that Britain is out, things could go the other way too.
The case of Ireland is particularly interesting. The small nation shares close economic ties, not to mention the only land borders, with the United Kingdom. What will happen to it when Britain leaves? While the Irish are pro-European and most likely to integrate themselves further in EU by joining the Schengen Agreement now that Britain is out, things could go the other way too.
If the Germans and the French are not careful and push too hard for fast and uncompromising federalization of Europe, they could hurt Ireland’s economy even further. Because the country is closely relying on Britain, the Brexit could cause Ireland to be one of the worse affected nations in the EU.
If the Franco-Germans corner the small nation to abolish its corporate taxation system and harmonize it with the rest of Europe, they could also push the Irish out of the union and in the hands of the British-Americans out of desperation.
These are of course scenarios, as there are many who believe that the UK won’t leave the EU after all.
British Labour MP David Lammy has called on Westminster to “stop this madness” and to vote against the referendum decision to leave the EU. He claims that the the referendum was an”advisory, non-binding referendum.”
“We can stop this madness and bring this nightmare to an end through a vote in Parliament. Our sovereign Parliament needs to now vote on whether we should exit the EU.” (The Independent)
In addition, there is a petition which has already gathered over 3 million votes, calling for a second referendum. Could the above developments indicate that the British citizens and leadership do not really want to leave the EU?
Is this fiasco with the referendum an effort to expose, silence and finally eliminate Britain’s Euro-skeptics?
Is this fiasco with the referendum an effort to expose, silence and finally eliminate Britain’s Euro-skeptics? After all, they have not only been blocking their country’s further integration into the union but also the EU’s progress in a fully fledged functioning federation for years.
Could their victory become their end? It is debatable if they have the skills to lead Britain and navigate it out of the mess they created for the country. If there is any chance of getting rid of them for good, it could well be to seemingly get their way, fail and disappear permanently.
If the UK leaves the Union, then is forced to rejoin due to the extreme economic penalties it could face, it will then be forced to join both the Schengen Agreement and the euro-zone. Could this disastrous outcome become the Euro-skeptic’s Pyrrhic victory, which could lead to a better EU and Europe?
A reformed EU, that will be kick-started by Britain’s departure and the need for further coherence in the remaining member states, could just be all that Europe needed all these years. The union has hit a wall politically, financially and socially.
Could the outcome of the British referendum, actually be a blessing in disguise for both the UK and our continent?
Originally published on Christos’ blog The Eblana European Democratic Movement.
Christos Mouzeviris is originally from Greece, but found his home in “Ireland, Europe and the world.” He is a blogger and a journalist, interested in politics, culture, history, music, traveling and nature. He considers himself a European and a Citizen of the World, and would like to see our continent and the world more united, and more democratic. To this end he has created The Eblana European Democratic Movement, which focuses on debates about culture, politics, EU issues, and society.
