On July 4th, 2024, about half of all adults in the United Kingdom turned out to vote, the lowest turnout since universal suffrage was introduced in 1918, according to an Institute for Public Policy Research report. Turnout was 59.8% of registered voters, down from 67.3% in 2019. While the narrative that Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won a crushing majority of seats despite barely increasing their vote share has been widely reported, insufficient attention has been paid to the UK’s other three constituent nations: Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, where nationalism plays a central role.
In 1997, the Labour government granted greater devolved powers to the constituent nations, partly to stem the rise of nationalism and separatism. The devolved parliaments have seen increasing support for nationalist parties that, in one way or another, champion further separation from the UK Government at Westminster. Given that Britain voted for “change,” it is important to analyze how this election played out across the whole of the UK and what impact this could have on the future of the Union.
Wales
Welsh independence has historically been seen as a low priority, both by voters and the parties that support it. According to recent YouGov polling, support for Welsh independence sits at 24% compared to 53% against. Despite this low support for independence, there is still a prevalent feeling of disillusionment among Welsh voters regarding Wales’ place in Westminster, something that is likely reflected in the country’s historically low voter turnout (56% in 2024). With the Conservative Party increasingly seen as shifting to the right (and becoming a political home for English nationalism), especially under former Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson, it is no surprise that the Conservative Party was completely wiped out in Wales, losing all 14 of their Welsh seats.
Despite the Conservatives’ sweeping loss, unionism (or at least support for a majority of unionist parties) seems to hold strong. Since the opening of the Senedd (Wales’ regional parliament) in 1999, Labour has always been the largest party in both the local parliament and in Wales’ Westminster seats. Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales), a left-wing Welsh nationalist party, has consistently been the second or third-largest party in the Senedd; however, this success isn’t reflected at Westminster, where the party has only ever won at most 4 of the 32 Welsh seats.
Wales has not been independent since the 13th century. In recent years, though, the Welsh identity has become more salient, even becoming a model for language revitalization. However, popular support for separating from the UK lags behind in Wales compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland. The potential rise of Conservative stars like Kemi Badenoch and Priti Patel, who are considered “darlings of the right,” alongside growing disillusionment with an England-oriented Westminster – or at least an England-oriented Conservative party – will likely have a lasting effect on Welsh politics, nationalism, and support for independence.
Scotland
Despite losing the “once in a generation” independence referendum in 2014 by 10.6 points, the Scottish National Party (SNP) continued to dominate Scottish politics, winning three UK General Elections in Scotland (2015, 2017, and 2019), as well as two Scottish Parliament elections (2016 and 2021). However, the SNP witnessed a crushing defeatin the most recent general election, losing 41 of its 48 Westminster seats. Like the Conservatives, the SNP government has also faced a number of high-profile scandals involving former SNP First Ministers Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon. Despite the electoral collapse of the SNP, it would be premature to say that nationalist support – and the independence that might come with it – is dead.
According to recent polling, support for Scottish independence sits at 46%, just 2 points behind “no” at 48%. Additionally, the same poll finds the SNP trailing Labour in the next Scottish Parliament election, leaving John Swinney (the SNP’s new leader and Scotland’s First Minister) two years to engage in what he called “soul-searching” after losing so much ground to Labour.
Like in Wales, the Conservative Party saw their share of the vote collapse. With the Conservatives no longer in power, the SNP can no longer point to their unpopularity as a reason to support Scottish independence, as they did under Boris Johnson. Scotland, which has not voted for a majority of Conservatives in a general election since 1959, now looks to be a battleground between two center-left parties: the SNP and Labour. The 2026 Scottish Parliament election will prove to be a test for the new Labour government – and a lifeline for the SNP – as the question of independence remains unanswered.
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland was the only nation that witnessed a victory for nationalist parties. After becoming the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2022 and securing the most local councilors in 2023, Sinn Féin continued its electoral momentum, holding all seven of its Westminster seats (despite its policy of abstaining from Westminster). For the first time since devolution, Sinn Féin has become the largest political force in the region, consistently increasing its vote share.
This increase in electoral support coincides with demographic trends showing that Catholics now outnumber Protestants for the first time in Northern Ireland. Unlike Wales and Scotland, Irish nationalists are seeking a “border poll” on reunification with the Republic of Ireland, a provision built into the Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles, a prolonged conflict between Protestant Unionists and Catholic Nationalists. Nationalists’ hopes for reunification stem not only from Sinn Féin’s success but also from the failure of unionist parties.
The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has long been the leading party in Northern Ireland, but following the Brexit turmoil that affected the region, it has slipped into second place. Brexit has particularly hurt the unionist cause, as Northern Ireland voted for the UK to remain in the EU. If Sinn Féin can turn around its political “slump” in the Republic of Ireland, a vote on Irish reunification may take place “this decade.”
In all three of these constituent nations, independence and reunification for Northern Ireland tend to be viewed more positively by younger generations. With this demographic advantage, nationalist parties could see this support translate into electoral victory in the coming years. However, the UK’s shift to the left could siphon momentum from nationalist parties, which also tend to draw in more left-leaning voters. Like Blair before him, Keir Starmer’s government will have to navigate the (dis)United Kingdom’s various nations and nationalisms.
Indeed, the 2024 Labour Party manifesto addresses new ways to advance devolution, including the proposal of a new “Council of the Nations and Regions” that would further devolve power to local authorities such as mayors and councils. While it remains to be seen whether devolution will lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom, it is certainly important to watch as the new Labour government brings about its promised “change.”
Branson Gillispie is a second year Master of Arts in International Relations (MAIR) student at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), with a Bachelor of Arts in International Affairs and Writing Rhetoric and Communications from Transylvania University in Lexington Kentucky. His research interests concern the intersection between conflict resolution, nationalism, identity, migration, and society, across Europe and Eurasia.
